Hardware Depreciation & Investment Analysis¶
Should you buy Apple Silicon now, or will it be obsolete? Hard data on resale, depreciation curves, and timing.
Last updated: February 14, 2026
M5 Timeline (Confirmed + Projected)¶
The base M5 chip is already shipping as of October 2025. The rest of the lineup rolls out through 2026.
| Product | Chip(s) | Expected Release | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| MacBook Pro 14" (base) | M5 | October 2025 | Already shipping |
| MacBook Pro 14"/16" | M5 Pro, M5 Max | ~March 2, 2026 | Imminent (Gurman confirmed Q1) |
| MacBook Air 13"/15" | M5 | March 2026 | Imminent (fits annual cycle) |
| Mac Mini | M5, M5 Pro | Mid 2026 | On Apple's 2026 schedule (Gurman) |
| Mac Studio | M5 Max, M5 Ultra | H2 2026 | Confirmed by Gurman |
| iMac | M5 | Mid-Late 2026 | Timing unclear, possibly WWDC |
| iMac Pro (revival?) | M5 Max | 2026 | Rumored, not guaranteed |
| Mac Pro | M5 Ultra | Late 2026 / 2027 | Most uncertain -- may skip to M6 |
M5 improvements over M4: 15-25% faster CPU, 45% improved graphics, Apple claims "3.5x more performance for AI workflows." Rumored modular chip design for AI processing.
Key Sources¶
- Apple Newsroom - M5 Announcement (Oct 2025)
- 9to5Mac - M5 Pro/Max March 2nd target (Feb 2026)
- MacRumors - Apple 2026 Product Roadmap (Dec 2025)
- MacRumors - M5 Ultra Mac Studio (Nov 2025)
Apple Silicon Depreciation Curves¶
Resale Value Over Time (Historical Data)¶
| Hardware | At Launch | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Mini (base) | 100% | ~70% | ~60% | ~50% | ~45% |
| Mac Mini (Pro config) | 100% | ~73% | ~65% | ~55% | ~48% |
| Mac Studio | 100% | ~75% | ~65% | ~55% | ~50% |
| MacBook Pro | 100% | ~70% | ~60% | ~52% | ~45% |
| MacBook Air | 100% | ~68% | ~58% | ~48% | ~42% |
Key finding: Apple Silicon depreciates slower than Intel Macs ever did. M1 Macs from 4+ years ago still hold ~50% of original value.
What Happens at Each New Chip Launch¶
| Timing | Price Impact |
|---|---|
| Announcement day | 5-10% immediate dip in previous-gen resale |
| 2-4 weeks after launch | Sharpest drop -- retailers discount old stock 15-25% |
| 2-3 months post-launch | Stabilizes at ~25-30% below original |
| 6+ months | Gradual decline matching historical curves |
| Being 1 gen behind (e.g., M4 when M5 is current) | Moderate 10-15% dip |
| Being 2 gens behind (e.g., M3 when M5 is current) | Steeper 25-35% dip |
Real Example: M4 MacBook Pro After M5 Launch (Oct 2025)¶
The base M5 MacBook Pro launched October 2025. What happened to M4: - M4 MacBook Pro got $250 off within weeks (16% cut) - M4 MacBook Air hit record low $799 (was $1,099 -- 27% off) during holidays - Apple aggressively cleared M4 inventory at retailers
But: M4 Pro/Max held value because no M5 Pro/Max existed yet. This changes in March 2026.
M4 Mac Mini Depreciation Forecast¶
| Config | Price Now | After M5 Mini (Mid 2026) | Late 2026 | 2-Year Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4 base 16GB | $599 | $420-450 (-27%) | $350-380 (-41%) | -41% |
| M4 Pro 48GB | $1,799 | $1,250-1,350 (-27%) | $1,100-1,200 (-35%) | -35% |
| M4 Pro 64GB | ~$2,200 | $1,500-1,650 (-27%) | $1,300-1,500 (-34%) | -34% |
Full M4 Product Line Forecast¶
| M4 Product | Current Resale (Feb 2026) | After M5 Pro/Max (March 2026) | After Full M5 Lineup (Late 2026) |
|---|---|---|---|
| M4 MacBook Air | ~85-90% | ~70-75% | ~60-65% |
| M4 MacBook Pro (base) | ~75-80% (already discounted) | ~65-70% | ~55-60% |
| M4 Pro MacBook Pro | ~85-90% | ~70-75% (biggest hit) | ~60-65% |
| M4 Max MacBook Pro | ~85-90% | ~70-75% | ~60-65% |
| M4 Mac Mini | ~80-85% | ~65-70% | ~55-60% |
| M4 iMac | ~85-90% | ~80-85% | ~65-70% (drops when M5 iMac ships) |
Will There Be a Used Mac Price Crash?¶
No. Here's why:
- M1 Macs (4 years old) still worth ~50% -- Apple Silicon holds value better than any previous Mac generation
- M4 to M5 is iterative (15-25% faster), not revolutionary. M4 won't suddenly become useless.
- AI use case creates demand floor -- Mac Minis are now marketed as "AI servers," creating new buyer pool
- Apple doesn't slash prices -- new models replace old at same price points, used market adjusts gradually
- Pro/Max retain value longer -- no M5 Pro existed until March 2026, so M4 Pro/Max had no direct replacement for months
What WILL happen: - M5 Pro/Max launch (March 2026): 10-20% dip in M4 Pro/Max prices - M5 Mac Mini launch (mid 2026): 20-27% dip in M4 Mac Mini prices - 2-3 months post-launch: stabilizes at ~25-30% below original - Long-term: gradual decline matching historical curves
Buy Now vs Wait Decision Matrix¶
Buy M4 NOW If:¶
- You need AI workloads immediately (next 4+ months matter -- Mac Mini M5 isn't until mid 2026)
- You plan to keep it 3+ years (long-term depreciation curve is favorable)
- You're buying base M4 ($599) -- cheap enough that depreciation doesn't matter
- Total cost of waiting (lost productivity + cloud API spend) exceeds ~$500 depreciation
Wait for M5 If:¶
- MacBook Pro/Air: Wait is only ~2 weeks (March 2026) -- absolutely wait
- Mac Mini: Wait is 4+ months (mid 2026) -- only wait if you don't need it now
- Mac Studio: Wait is 6+ months (H2 2026) -- only wait if you're spending $5K+
- You want best resale value (buy right after launch, sell before next gen)
- You need maximum performance (M5 is 15-25% faster CPU, 3.5x AI claims)
Don't Buy Mac Hardware At All If:¶
- You're running OpenClaw (it calls cloud APIs -- a $5 VPS works)
- You're primarily using Claude Code with Anthropic API (cloud-hosted)
- You don't need local LLM inference
- Your budget is better spent on API credits
The Real Cost of Waiting¶
For Mac Mini (M5 not until mid 2026)¶
| If you wait 4-5 months... | Cost |
|---|---|
| M4 Pro 64GB depreciation saved | ~$500-700 |
| M5 Pro 64GB likely price | ~$2,200-2,500 (may cost more) |
| Lost productivity (4-5 months without local AI) | Depends on use case |
| Cloud API spend while waiting ($100/mo) | $400-500 |
For most users buying a Mac Mini, the cost of waiting exceeds the depreciation savings unless you have zero need for local inference today.
For MacBook Pro/Air (M5 in ~2 weeks)¶
Absolutely wait. The M5 Pro/Max MacBook Pro and M5 MacBook Air launch around March 2, 2026. There is zero reason to buy an M4 laptop right now.
Recommendation by Budget¶
| Budget | Best Move (Feb 2026) |
|---|---|
| $0-500 | Don't buy hardware. Use cloud APIs + VPS. |
| $500-1,000 | Wait for M5 Mac Mini base (mid 2026) or grab discounted M4 mini |
| $1,000-2,500 | Mac Mini: Buy M4 Pro 64GB now. Laptop: Wait 2 weeks for M5. |
| $2,500-5,000 | Wait for M5 Mac Studio announcement (H2 2026) |
| $5,000-10,000 | Definitely wait. M5 Ultra/Studio not shipped yet. |